Disruption

Horace Dediu, on why each new computing interface tends to add to the others rather than replace them:

The touch UI did not immediately obviate the need for traditional personal computing interfaces. The smartphone brought computing to more people and more contexts but keyboard and pointer computing cannot be fully replaced by touch. We have a situation where there is co-existence between touch and non-touch computing. Indeed we also have sensor computing in the form of Apple Watch and AirPods. Perhaps there were will also be Apple spectacles to expand the compute real estate on the body.

Intent computing will probably reside primarily with our phones and wearables but Spatial Computing will strengthen their position alongside keyboard computing. Spatial was always a “high commitment” interface. To use it you strapped in, settled down and became acclimated. Then you became productive. A session was going to last at least 20 minutes, perhaps even a few hours.

Intent computing is a few seconds of use. Perhaps a few seconds strung out in multiple sessions but it was far more “glance” computing than “sit down” computing.

So why not have all forms of computing?

As the diagram on the coral of life shows, evolution results in a multitude of “form factors”. Some do become extinct (see the scroll wheel iPod or the stylus PDA.) But most survive and coexist.

I agree with Horace. Intent computing will build on top of the platforms we already have, not replace them. An AI pin isn’t going to displace the smartphone. Even when you can just ask your phone to do something, you’ll still pick it up to read, watch, and look things up.

Satya Nadella, making the case that the model itself becomes a commodity — and that the value moves to the learning loop a company builds on top of it:

Every company is going to have to build what I think of as human capital and token capital. Human capital comprises the knowledge, judgment, relationships, ingenuity, and pattern recognition of its people, while token capital is the firm’s AI capability it builds and owns.

Importantly, human capital does not become less valuable as token capital grows. It only becomes more valuable! I believe human agency will be the driver of token capital growth. Humans will set ambitious goals, connect dots across domains, build relationships, and recognize patterns that matter most. Without human direction, you have compute running in circles.

This means the real opportunity is not in picking the best model but instead in building a learning loop on top of models where human capital and token capital compound. You can offload a task, or even a job, but you can never offload your learning. The future of the firm is the ability to compound that learning across people and AI.

This requires a new architectural approach where every business is able to build agentic systems that improve over time, while still retaining control over their IP. A company should be able to switch out a “generalist” model without losing the “company veteran” expertise built into their learning system. This is the key “test” of your control and sovereignty in the era ahead.

He’s right about the headline: without human direction, you’re leaving compute to wander. The creativity, the instinct, the judgment about what’s worth doing — call it taste — still has to come from people. No model supplies that for you.

But his bias shows in the vision he paints. Microsoft is vulnerable in exactly the future he describes, one where the model-makers absorb the very expertise he’s urging firms to protect. And the economics push them to do it: pulling that expertise into the model is the business those companies are in.